Wonderful introduction:
The breeze in one's sleeves is the happiness of an honest man, a prosperous business is the happiness of a businessman, punishing evil and hoeing an adulterer is the happiness of a knight, being good in character and learning is the happiness of a student, helping those in need and those in need is the happiness of a good person, sowing in spring and harvesting in autumn is the happiness of farmers.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: European and British central banks are expected to cut interest rates, and analysis of the short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on November 4". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures all fell, with the Dow futures falling 0.63%, the S&P 500 futures falling 0.99%, and the Nasdaq futures falling 1.28%. Germany's DAX index fell by 1.25%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.59%, France's CAC40 index fell by 1.19%, and Europe's Stoxx 50 index fell by 1.07%.
⑴ The three-month interest rate contract shows that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to cut interest rates, while the Fed's interest rate expectations are becoming stable. ⑵ Through the December interest rate spread observation of SOFR, Euribor and SONIA, the market’s expectations for the number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 have fallen from the August high and remained stable. ⑶In contrast, the interest rate expectations of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, whose Z5/Z6 interest rate spreads both hit new highs last month. ⑷Although the European Central Bank's pricing has fallen from its high point, the Bank of England's interest rate cut expectations remain high, and SONIA's Z5/Z6 interest rate spread is still close to last month's high. ⑸The market expects that the Bank of England will adopt a looser monetary policy to offset the growth impact of the British government's tightening fiscal policy and tax increases. ⑹ We expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates in February and April next year to offset the negative impact of tightening fiscal policy on economic growth. ⑺The current policy paths of the three major central banks are diverging, and investors need to pay attention to the cross-market trading opportunities brought about by the difference in interest rate expectations. ⑻The game between monetary policy and fiscal policy will become a key factor affecting the future trend of the European and British markets.key variable. ⑼ Differences in the pace of central bank policy may trigger a repricing of exchange rate relationships between major currencies.
⑴Kazakhstan’s National Energy www.llfzg.cnpany announced on Tuesday that it would raise the Kashagan Oil Field’s 2025 production forecast from 17.8 million metric tons to 18.25 million metric tons. ⑵At the same time, the output forecast of Karachaganak Oil Field was raised from 11.14 million metric tons to 11.2 million metric tons, and the total output of the two major oil fields increased by 510,000 metric tons. ⑶ Data from the first nine months of this year show that the Kashagan Oil Field has achieved a production of 13.6 million metric tons, and the Karachaganak Oil Field has produced a production of 8.23 million metric tons. ⑷The Kashagan Oilfield, as one of the world's largest oil field discoveries in recent decades, was jointly developed by international energy giants such as Eni, Shell, Total Energy, and Exxon Mobil. ⑸The Karachaganak oil field is jointly operated by Chevron, Shell, Eni and Russia's Lukoil. ⑹ This production increase occurs in the context of OPEC+ maintaining production cuts, and may have a marginal relaxing effect on the global crude oil supply balance. ⑺Investors need to pay attention to the trend of production increases in non-OPEC oil-producing countries, which may partially offset the effect of production reduction measures by major oil-producing countries. ⑻The progress of Kazakhstan’s production target will become an important observation indicator for judging the elasticity of global crude oil supply in 2025. ⑼ The production growth of international energy www.llfzg.cnpanies in Central Asia may affect their global asset allocation and capital expenditure plans.
⑴ The Japanese government bond market weakened across the board after ending a three-day break on Tuesday. The 10-year futures fell 0.17 points to 135.87, hitting a low of 135.82 during the session. ⑵ The yield curve steepened significantly, with the 30-year yield rising sharply by 4.5 basis points to 3.085%, far exceeding the 2 basis points increase of the 10-year yield. ⑶Investors are cautious ahead of Wednesday's 10-year Treasury bond auction and next Tuesday's 30-year auction, actively selling medium and long-term bonds. ⑷ Market volatility intensified in the afternoon. Jiji News Agency reported that the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates to 0.75% at its December meeting, intensifying selling pressure. ⑸ Futures market pricing shows that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike at the December meeting is 59%, and the probability of the January meeting has risen to 86.5%. ⑹ Prime Minister Takahashi Sanae announced the establishment of a new growth strategy www.llfzg.cnmittee and emphasized that it will implement "responsible and proactive fiscal policies." ⑺Members of the www.llfzg.cnmittee include Credit Agricole economist Takuji Aida and former Bank of Japan member Goji Kataoka, triggering market speculation on policy and personnel arrangements. ⑻The Nikkei Index plummeted 1.74% to 51,497 points, but the bond market did not receive inflows of safe-haven funds, reflecting that the market is more concerned about bond supply and monetary policy risks. ⑼ The short-term focus turns to the results of Wednesday's 10-year Treasury bond auction, and the trend in long-term yields will be driven by the 30-year auction and central bank policy expectations.
On the 4th, the U.S. federal government’s “shutdown” entered its 35th day, tying the recordThe records set from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019 have seriously affected many areas of people's livelihood in the United States, such as food relief, preschool education, air transportation, and medical security. In this political farce, many low-income families with children are under increased pressure: they must find ways to make money to cope with the difficulties after losing relief funds, and they also face the problem of having to take care of their children at home due to the closure of preschool education institutions. The "shutdown" affects the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, which tens of millions of Americans depend on. This federal food relief program has stopped disbursing benefits since November 1. The Trump administration said on the 3rd that it would use US$4.65 billion in emergency funds to maintain the payment of about half of the relief benefits under this plan this month. But with some states taking weeks or even months to www.llfzg.cnplete all system changes, it's still unclear when relief payments will arrive and how much they will amount to.
⑴The U.S. Logistics Managers Index remained at 57.4 in October, the same as the reading in September, indicating that the logistics industry maintains stable growth. ⑵ Stronger transportation activities offset the downward pressure brought by falling inventory and warehousing indicators. ⑶ Inventory levels fell by 5.6 to 49.5, and warehouse utilization slowed down by 8.8 to 56.5. ⑷On the other hand, transportation prices increased by 7.5 to 61.7, and transportation utilization increased by 7.3 to 57.3. ⑸ At the same time, transportation prices increased and the expansion rate of available transportation capacity slightly dropped by 0.7 to 54.5, breaking the negative freight inversion trend that lasted for two months. ⑹ Taken together, the inventory decline may be due to the start of holiday sales, which eased the previous warehousing tension, while the increase in cargo flow promoted the increase in transportation utilization.
⑴ Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced his first budget on Tuesday, launching a large-scale fiscal stimulus plan aimed at reducing the economy's dependence on the United States and responding to the impact of Trump's tariff remarks. ⑵ The budget is expected to generate a deficit of 70-90 billion Canadian dollars, which is Canada's highest deficit level since the COVID-19 epidemic, raising questions about fiscal sustainability. ⑶ Carney promised "generational investment", focusing on increasing defense and housing spending. Defense spending will reach 2% of GDP in this fiscal year and further increase to 5% of the total ratio in 2035. ⑷In order to ease trade frictions, Canada has withdrawn its retaliatory tariffs against the United States, which is expected to cause a revenue loss of 20 billion Canadian dollars. The cancellation of the digital services tax further intensifies financial pressure. ⑸The government requires various departments to reduce expenditure by 7.5% in the next fiscal year, gradually increasing to 15% by 2028, in an attempt to balance large-scale capital investment through tightening operational expenditure. ⑹ The budget differentiates between current expenditure and capital expenditure for the first time, plans to balance the current deficit within three years, and promises that the proportion of debt in GDP will gradually decrease. ⑺ This budget is a key test for Carney's minority government, and its political fate depends on the support of the New Democratic Party, which has only seven seats. ⑻ The huge deficit may cause public debt interest payments to continue to rise. Last year, this expenditure increased by 125% www.llfzg.cnpared with before the epidemic, and fiscal stability faces severe challenges.
⑴ Germany successfully issued an additional 3.766 billion euros of two-year government bonds on Tuesday, with an average yield of 1.98%, an increase from the previous 1.91%. ⑵The bidding multiple this time reached 1.7 times, which was significantly higher than the previous 1.4 times, indicating that market demand has improved significantly. ⑶ Yields are rising but demand is simultaneously increasing, reflecting subtle changes in market expectations for the European Central Bank's monetary policy. ⑷The over-subscription of short-term government bond issuance may be due to investors' allocation demand for high-quality safe assets after yields rebound. ⑸ www.llfzg.cnpared with the yield of 3.578% on U.S. bonds during the same period, German debt still maintains a large negative interest rate spread, but the results of this issuance show that expectations for a narrowing of interest rate spreads are taking shape. ⑹ As the benchmark treasury bonds of the euro area, the issuance of German short-term bonds will provide an important reference for subsequent financing of euro area countries. ⑺ Investors need to pay attention to the transmission effect of changes in bond yields in core European countries on the overall interest rate market, especially the impact on the interest rate spreads of surrounding countries' treasury bonds.
⑴The ten-year U.S. bond yield reached 4.085%, which is significantly higher than the German bond 2.649% and the Japanese bond 1.676%, forming a huge interest rate difference of 143.6 basis points and 240.9 basis points. ⑵ The yield on British government bonds is the highest among the world's major economies, reaching 4.410% for the ten-year period and 3.773% for the two-year period, reflecting the market's specific expectations for British inflation and monetary policy. ⑶ Germany, as the benchmark for the Eurozone, has a steep two-year yield curve of 1.982% and a ten-year yield curve of 2.649%, with a spread of more than 66 basis points, implying the market's judgment on the European economic prospects. ⑷The yield on Japanese government bonds continues to be low, with the two-year 0.947% and the ten-year 1.676% both far lower than those of other countries, indicating that its monetary policy is maverick. ⑸The yield curves of Australian and Canadian treasury bonds show different shapes. The yields of Australian bonds are generally higher than those of Canadian bonds, reflecting the differentiated situation of resource-based economies. ⑹ Analysis of short-term Treasury bond spreads shows that the premium of U.S. bonds relative to German bonds for the two-year variety reaches 159.6 basis points, which is lower than the 143.6 basis points for the ten-year variety, implying the market's divergence on the path of long-term interest rates. ⑺ There are obvious internal divisions in the Eurozone. The interest rate spread between Italian and French debt and German debt remains in the 70-80 basis point range, reflecting the differences in credit risks and debt sustainability among member countries.
EUR/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, EUR/USD fell and is now at 1.1491, a decrease of 0.25%. Pre-market in New York, (EURUSD) price has declined in recent intraday trading, preparing to break through the support currently located at 1.1490. The main bearish trend dominates in the short term, while the price trades along the support trend line. Furthermore, the negative pressure is reinforced by a negative crossover on the Relative Strength Index and intensifying downward pressure after oversold conditions were digested.
GBP/USD: As of 20:20 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell, now trading at 1.3064, a decrease of 0.58%. Before the New York market opened, (GBPUSD) price fell slightly in recent intraday trading, preparing to break through the current support level of 1.3110. This is also the target we expected in our previous analysis, while its continued trading below the EMA50 reflects continued dynamic pressure, which reduces the possibility of a near-term price recovery. In the short term, the main bearish trend is fully dominant and the price is running along the trend line. src="/uploads/2025/11/2b3t3qfaizk.jpg" />
Spot gold: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now trading at 3992.45, a decrease of 0.18%. Before the New York market opened, the price of gold (gold) rose in the latest intraday transaction, which benefited from the positive overlapping signals on the relative strength indicator. In contrast, the price has reached extremely oversold levels, indicating the possibility of a positive divergence, pushing it to extend its intraday gains; on the other hand, the price remains under negative pressure as it trades below the EMA50 and is dominated by a bearish correction trend in the short term.
Spot silver: As of 20:20 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now trading at 47.711, a decrease of 0.73%. Before the New York market opened, the (silver) price fluctuated in recent intraday trading because its trading price was lower than EMA50 and was at 0.73%. The short term is dominated by a bearish correction trend, coupled with a breakout of a small bullish channel range, so there is downward pressure. On the other hand, we note a positive crossover after the RSI reached oversold levels, which helped the price stabilize temporarily.
Crude oil market: As of 20:20 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now trading at 60.260, down 1.28%. Before the New York market opened, (crude oil) prices fell in the latest trading day, exceeding the support of EMA50, resulting in a short-term breakthrough of the bullish correction trend line, which intensified the negative pressure on the price, especially the negative signal on the relative strength indicator, although it reached the oversold level.
Citigroup released a report on China's consumer industry stating that the new gold tax regulations appear to have reduced the value-added tax deduction rate for jewelers purchasing gold from 13% has dropped to 6%. The industry is still studying the policy provisions and there are various interpretations. In the most extreme case, gold purchasing costs could rise by 7%. If retail prices remain unchanged, the impact on the www.llfzg.cn profits of Laopu Gold (06181.HK), Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) and Luk Fook (00590.HK) in fiscal year 2026 is expected to be 15%, 26% and 6% respectively. In this case, the entire industry is likely to increase prices to pass on cost pressures, and the www.llfzg.cnpetitive landscape may be favorable to leading www.llfzg.cnpanies. However, it is unclear whether the policy intention is only to increase transaction costs for gold bar and gold coin investment, or whether it also hopes to curb demand for gold jewelry. As such, Citi expects further clarification of implementation details in the www.llfzg.cning days.
Goldman Sachs economist Alec Phillips pointed out that this U.S. government shutdown may cause an unprecedented economic impact, which may last longer than the 35-day record in 2018-2019, and affect a wider range of government departments. According to estimates, if the U.S. government shutdown lasts for six weeks, it may reduce U.S. economic growth by 1.15 percentage points in the fourth quarter, and it is not expected to rebound until early 2026. Phillips said service disruptions in areas ranging from air traffic controls to food stamp programs are continuing to intensify, putting pressure on Congress to grow.
Citigroup predicts that by 2030, global artificial intelligence industry revenue will reach US$975 billion, www.llfzg.cnpared with US$43 billion in 2025, which means a www.llfzg.cnpound annual growth rate of as high as 86%. This growth reflects the accelerated adoption and www.llfzg.cnmercialization of AI technology by enterprises, while very large cloud service providers are increasing investment in infrastructure to meet surging market demand. Last week, four U.S. technology giants, Google parent www.llfzg.cnpany Alphabet, Facebook parent www.llfzg.cnpany Meta, Microsoft and Amazon, announced plans to significantly increase annual capital expenditures and increase investment in semiconductor infrastructure and data center capacity to support the rapidly growing demand for artificial intelligence. Citi estimates that total capital expenditures by major U.S. cloud www.llfzg.cnputing vendors will reach $4.4 trillion between 2026 and 2030, while total investment worldwide (including sovereign funds and other institutions) is expected to reach $7.75 trillion.
ING interest rate strategists said in a report that the U.S. Treasury yield curve is still too flat. The current spread between the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields is about 50 basis points, according to Tradeweb data. Strategists pointed out that amid favorable risk sentiment, there is likely to be some degree of steepening of the yield curve, driven mainly by long-end yields, unless there is a new change in subsequent data.
The German economy stabilized as expected in the third quarter, in line with general market expectations. Preliminary assessments show that growth in the quarter was mainly driven by a rebound in gross capital formation, especially fixed asset investment, but falling exports continued to weigh on overall economic performance. More detailed breakdown data is scheduled to be released on November 25. The most noteworthy positive detail is that the quarter-on-quarter GDP decline in the second quarter was slightly revised to -0.2% (the original value was -0.3%). This fine-tuning enhances our confidence that the forecast target of GDP growth of 0.2% for 2025 is within an achievable range. Looking forward to 2026-2027, we maintain a positive outlook. The current highly expansionary fiscal policy stance is expected to continue to inject significant impetus into the real economy. We continue to forecast GDP growth of 1.5% in both years.
The above content is all about "[XM Group]: The European and British central banks are expected to cut interest rates, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on November 4" was carefully www.llfzg.cnpiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
After doing something, there will always be experiences and lessons learned. In order to facilitate future work, the experience and lessons from past work must be analyzed, researched, summarized, concentrated, and understood at a theoretical level.